So not to state the obvious, but Donald Trump just won West Virginia by 29 points. The only way Manchin has held on to his seat has been by keeping an extreme distance from the left. Manchin is going to be Manchin, but if his seat goes to the Republicans it will be even harder to get to fifty seats in the Senate.

If Democrats can't win elections by a large enough margin to effectively control the House, Senate, and Presidency then liberal reforms are off the table. If history is a guide the Republicans win back the House in 2022.

The Georgia seets will depend on how Georgians vote, but again history suggests Republicans do better in the runoffs than in the general election.