I'm always interested by these everybody else is wrong but I am right analyses. From where I sit you are dramatically overstating the case for Trump. I consider Fivethirtyeight.com to be the gold standard in polling analysis. They give Trump a 10% chance of winning. They gave him a 33% chance in 2016.

I believe voters crave normalcy more than blowing up the system. I think you can only completely mismanage a global pandemic and deny its impact for so long before voters turn on you.

We will see.