I really enjoyed your summary of the key issues. I do have a couple of thoughts. On the eave of the election in 2016 Donald Trump had a 33% chance of winning. Right now he has a 13% chance of winning. Biden's 86% chance of winning is the highest it has been since the model began. The numbers are from 538.com which has an excellent track record.

The use of mail in ballots reduce the chance of a late swing in votes. Furthermore, a reelection campaign is always a referendum on the sitting president. Trump benefited from an open seat in 2016 and Hillary Clinton's historic unpopularity.

Trump's approval rate is only 43.7%. Typically a President has to be above 50% in order to win. Even if the electoral college is tilted towards the Republicans that likely is not enough to make up the difference. Finally, I find it interesting that you are describing Ohio, Arizona, and Georgia as swing states. The fact that they are on the table shows how weak Trump has become. Biden is far more likely to win Georgia or Texas than Trump is to win Pennsylvania.

Obviously we won't know the outcome for a bit, but it is looking far more like a blow out than a nail biter.