Five Thirty Eight has been incredibly accurate since at least 2004. Nate Silver, the senior editor, spent the two weeks prior to the election arguing that Hillary was not guaranteed to win. He also demonstrated that James Comey reopening the investigation into Hillary’s e-mails were what tipped the election.

Since they are aggregating polling with careful statistical analysis of the quality and partisan lean of different polling organizations it is very high quality.

The other thing that most people forget analyzing polls is the band of certainty. If Trafalgar is correct that Trump is going to win, then FiveThirtyEight is not wrong since they say Trump has a 10% chance of winning.

I and many other people consider FiveThirtyEight the gold standard. Most discussion of polls in the media is nonsense and a waste of time. The aggregation helps to smooth out irregular results.

We will see sometime in the next month or so who is right.